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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward formula. It frequently functions as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who engineered the biggest improvement is handed the prize. In practice, it creates an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or simply the most shocking surprise.

Yet this year's race is profoundly unique. The group of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners falling away and recent underperformers improving in unison. Under an normal season, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a turbulent and fun season, he's competing with five other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the projected vote ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to spin magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every bet – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a normal year, he would be the overwhelming choice. But this is not a typical season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for long-term winning. But he comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching mix of youth and experience, he hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still