A Permanent Truce Among the Israeli State and Palestine? We've Witnessed Similar Promises – The Consequence Was More Conflict

So, what year are we in? The White House occupant, after months of implicit backing, has finally intervened to halt an military campaign from Israel that has transformed swaths of a city in the Middle East to rubble, leaving numerous individuals dead and generating worldwide anger.

The campaign has come after a sequence of attacks on Israel. Now, under pressure from American leadership, the Israel's leader, a conservative politician with an aptitude for popular speech and a deep conviction of Zionist historical purpose, has consented to a truce.

Past Echoes

The year is not the current year, but 1982. The location is not the Gaza Strip, but the Lebanese capital. The president is Ronald Reagan, not Donald Trump.

We find many differences between the events in the Lebanese nation over four in the past and what has happened in the Gaza Strip in the past two years. The Hamas raid of last year, which killed twelve hundred and involved 250 captured, shows limited similarity with the somewhat modest activities of the Palestinian leadership in the time before the Israeli incursion of Lebanon.

Striking Parallels

Several similarities are remarkable. The US leader eventually picked up the phone the counterpart, telling him that what was happening in Beirut was "a catastrophe" and indicating the relations between their states could be seriously harmed if the violence continued.

During that period, similar to current times, the fighting developed in real time on televisions worldwide. Hundreds correspondents entered Beirut to cover for the premier occasion an Middle Eastern conflict without media restrictions by the combatants.

Aftermath and Consequences

The situation following the conversation from American leadership and the halt in fighting in the city is instructive. The Palestinian organization, its factions and leaders were scattered across multiple countries and a dozen countries.

The US administration then pulled out multinational troops – a breach of the agreement with the Palestinian leader. Bashir Gemayel, Lebanon's freshly appointed leader and Israeli-supported figure, was killed by Syrian intelligence.

Regional Transformation

Similar patterns emerged across the rest of the region. By the late seventies, the increasingly non-religious and progressive ideas that had looked to deliver the potential of a changed reality in the regional countries years before were undermined.

The outcomes of this emerged rapidly, in short order

Throughout the area, Israel and the United States now encountered enemies who were significantly more stubborn, deadly and efficient than the secular movements and independence advocates of the past.

Global Approach

Internationally, the consequences of this were unexpected. Throughout the 1970s, western analysts and officials had sought to understand what caused violent extremism.

Afterward, in the start of the eighties, this stopped. Political leaders in the US, the United Kingdom and elsewhere were lost interest in "root causes" of unrest.

Current Similarities

Recently, accounts show that current leadership informed government representatives that Israel could not confront global opinion and recognized national hopes for a state.

This also was an echo of that earlier period. In the consequence of the military incursion of the neighboring country, past government told the nation that the strength of its defense establishment alone could not "bring just and lasting peace" and acknowledged "justified demands of the Palestinian population."

However a US-led regional peace plan meant to resolve those grievances went nowhere. From exile, political figures observed impotently.

Worldwide concern in the area decreased. The nation resisted any concessions. Subsequently, there was the initial uprising, and the establishment of further armed organizations.

  • The cycles of the past provide serious insights for contemporary peace efforts
  • Permanent settlements require confronting fundamental problems rather than temporary ceasefires
  • Local circumstances continue to evolve in complex and sometimes unexpected ways
Jaime Porter
Jaime Porter

A tech futurist and innovation strategist with over a decade of experience analyzing disruptive technologies and their societal impacts.

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